Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 2.049784 2.155034 2.267596 2.397829 2.545541 2.709362 2.906957
2025-06-08 1.917320 2.050485 2.198579 2.377814 2.592272 2.845457 3.175032
2025-06-15 1.845900 1.999644 2.175833 2.396898 2.673564 3.018908 3.502619
2025-06-22 1.743504 1.902571 2.088040 2.325779 2.631648 3.027375 3.610119
2025-06-29 1.692370 1.861239 2.061849 2.325138 2.674683 3.146450 3.885907
2025-07-06 1.626597 1.797760 2.003533 2.277782 2.649593 3.166295 4.013843
2025-07-13 1.604025 1.785165 2.006643 2.308453 2.730535 3.344004 4.427375
2025-07-20 1.595890 1.789316 2.030168 2.366519 2.853841 3.601068 5.052828
2025-07-27 1.566604 1.764981 2.014976 2.369885 2.896805 3.736537 5.494408
2025-08-03 1.539907 1.742533 2.000700 2.372856 2.938363 3.874530 5.995533
2025-08-10 1.493188 1.692461 1.947411 2.317083 2.883900 3.836540 6.067665
2025-08-17 1.464294 1.664548 1.922639 2.300782 2.890082 3.908462 6.450876
2025-08-24 1.435667 1.637173 1.898965 2.286959 2.902722 4.001528 6.969540
2025-08-31 1.408384 1.610568 1.875118 2.271274 2.910551 4.086314 7.526660
2025-09-07 1.394687 1.601314 1.874467 2.289708 2.976572 4.300003 8.738587
2025-09-14 1.354440 1.555435 1.821288 2.225759 2.895709 4.189892 8.565848
2025-09-21 1.337206 1.539952 1.810061 2.225435 2.925938 4.327651 9.659178
2025-09-28 1.307138 1.506399 1.772352 2.182463 2.877328 4.280793 9.801224
2025-10-05 1.301106 1.505125 1.780105 2.210447 2.958358 4.549990 12.285801
2025-10-12 1.302802 1.514284 1.802885 2.263234 3.090725 4.985944 18.755011
2025-10-19 1.289694 1.502669 1.795150 2.266302 3.128449 5.185652 25.901551
2025-10-26 1.277109 1.491415 1.787505 2.269005 3.165580 5.395901 42.917067
2025-11-02 1.250002 1.459420 1.748578 2.218350 3.091517 5.254141 39.203465